Predictions for Tomorrow: A Historic Power Shift in AL, Less So Nationwide

Let's start with the big state races first:

Alabama House: Outside of its traditional strongholds, support for the Democratic party is collapsing. 

1. Since October 20, 4 of the 6 toss-up races have moved toward the GOP, with only one (HD-1) trending toward the Democrats.   Moreover, 6 races that were once though to have Democratic winners are now toss-ups. 
2. Two weeks ago, Democrats had 50 of the 105 seats in the House, with the GOP in control of 49.  Today, the GOP has 54, while the Democrats are down to 42.  Even if all 9 toss-ups go to the Democrats, the GOP will be in control of the House.  

Alabama Senate: Come tomorrow, the GOP stands to have at 17 seats, up from the present total of 14.  The Democrats will lose at least 7 seats, bringing their total down from 20 to 13.  Not counting the one Independent seat, 4 toss-ups remain.  At least one of these will go to the Republicans, giving them control of the both the House and Senate for the first time in almost seven generations. 

Governor's Race: Despite the lack of trust that Dr. Robert Bentley's has engendered through his covert acceptance of AEA funds, he will still win. 

Lieutenant Governor's Race: The race between incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. and former Treasury Secretary Kay Ivey will be much closer.  Both candidates have the albatross of the state's PACT program around their necks, but the stigma will be associated with Ivey more, as she was the Chairman of the program.  If turnout is high, Folsom will win.  If not, Ivey still has a chance. 

Now, a look at the national picture: 


Alabama's 2nd District: The future is not looking as favorable as it was four months ago for one-term Rep. Bobby Bright (D) as he faces a challenge from Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). The race maystill be close, but I think Roby has at least a 50 percent chance of winning.  Here's why:

1. With the exception of Lowndes and Bullock Counties, the Second District is largely Republican, and tends to vote two-thirds or more in favor of GOP candidates. 
2. Bright defeated his GOP challenger, Jay Love, with only 50.3 percent (about 2,000) of all votes in 2008, many of which came from the African-American fervor for President Obama.  That same passion has not materialized this election year.
3. The weather may also spoil Bright's chances of winning, as rain is predicted on the west side of his district for much of the day.  
4. All of these variables will likely affect turnout for both parties.  Since 1998, the district has averaged around 220,000 votes per general election.  The exception was 2008, when almost 290,000 district residents voted.  To see who will tomorrow night, watch the vote count.  If, when half of the ballot boxes in the district are accounted for, only 100,000 votes or less have been counted, Roby will likely win.  If the count is above 120,000, Bright is still in the game.   

US Senate: Real Clear Politics has the Republicans and Democrats with 45 and 48 seats, respectively, with 7 toss-ups.  Of these, at least 2 (CA, WV) will go Democratic, while another 3 (CO, IL, PA) will go GOP.  The question marks are Nevada (R+2.7) and Washington, where incumbent Patti Murray (D) has a lead of less than half a point over challenger Dino Rossi. Either way, the Democrats keep control of the Senate, by either 1 or 2 seats.

US House: In the House, 218 seats are needed for a majority.  Again, using data from Real Clear Politics, the GOP stands to gain anywhere from 45 to 88 seats in the House of Representatives, with a comfortable average of about 66-67 seats. At best, this will give Republicans 267 seats, and at worst, 224.  For the GOP, it is not a question of winning, but a question of the strength of their win.  Given the lack of Democratic enthusiasm in this electoral cycle, I predict a GOP pick-up of between 68-70 seats. 


As an aside, please vote tomorrow.  It is one of the few ways we can participate directly in the Great Experiment we call America. 

The Alabama Legislature: Is Major Change Coming?

With so many seats up for grabs in the Alabama legislature and so few unbiased polls making it to the public, it has been especially difficult to comment on who's winning and losing in the various House and Senate races. 

Thankfully, Doc's Political Parlor has posted summary data for both the House and Senate races, which they update from time to time.  Based on their numbers, here's what's happening in Alabama:

Senate: Six weeks ago, the GOP and Democrats were tied a 15 seats apiece, with 5 seats up for grabs.  A lot has changed since then, and most of it is not good news for the Democrats.  Three of the 5 toss-up seats have moved into GOP hands, as well as 2 seats formerly considered to be in Democratic hands.  Only 2 seats have moved away from the GOP: Kim Benefield's seat is now a toss-up, and Harri Anne Smith's Independent seat has moved from being a toss-up to Independent territory. 

In sum, the GOP now has a lead of 18-12, with 1 Independent (caucuses with the Democrats) and 4 toss-ups.  Remember, either party only has to have 18 seats to have a majority.  If this gain of at least 4 seats sticks, there will be a historic shift of power in the Legislature come January 2011. 

These numbers may be the tip of the iceberg.  Some insider information I've reviewed suggests the GOP is in striking distance of trouncing the Democrats, possibly picking up as many as 10 seats.  While this is a long shot, it would give the Republicans 24 of 35 seats, enough for a super-majority.

The House: There isn't much to report here.  At present, the Democrats have 50 seats under control, the GOP has 49, and 6 are anybody's guess.  This is about the same as six weeks ago. 

If the seats are broken down by "safe" (10+ point lead) and "likely" (5+ point lead), the Democrats have 35 safe, or 43 likely-or-better seats.  By comparison, Republicans have only 29 safe seats, or 40 likely-or-better seats, so they have a taller hill to climb to wrest control from the establishment.
 

Twelve Days and Counting...Where Are We?

Between the beginning of October and today, there is very little measurable difference in the number of seats held by either the Democrats or Republicans in the U.S. Senate:

                                                          10/1  10/20   Change
Safe GOP Seats (10+ points ahead)   17     17    
Safe Democrat Seats                            7       7
GOP Total (includes non-runners)      40      40

Democrat Total                                   47      47

Likely GOP Seats (5+ points)             23      20       -3
Likely Democrat Seats                         8        8
GOP Total                                          46      43
Democrat Total                                   48      48

Leaning GOP Seats (1+ points)          26     26
Leaning Democrat Seats                    10        9       -1
GOP Total                                           49     49
Democrat Total                                   50     49       -1

For the Republicans--and to a lesser extent, the Democrats--the seats each side has lost have not been picked up by the other party.  Rather, they are being swapped, with some seats disappearing into dead heats of less than 1 point between candidates. 

Most races are tightening across the country, but in most cases these changes are not enough to make any difference (yet) in the number of winners in both parties.  In fact, there are only three races where significant momentum is building.  Two of these are the New York races, where Sens. Gillibrand and Schumer are pulling away from their Republican challengers (-12 and -29, respectively). The third is Colorado, where Republican candidate Ken Buck is under attack for misspeaking during a debate and allegedly refusing to prosecute a rape case (at present, Buck is ahead by an average of 4 points).

Other races to watch for possible changes are:

• Alaska: Incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has reinserted herself into the campaign as a write-in candidate after having been defeated in the state's primary by Tea Party candidate Joe Miller.  As Real Clear Politics puts it, "the choice in Alaska will likely be what kind of Republican the state wants." At present, Miller is ahead by 1 point. 
• Pennsylvania: GOP candidate Joe Toomey's lead over Pat Sestak has largely evaporated in the past two weeks (+5 for Toomey).  
• Washington: As in PA,  GOP challenger Joe Rossi's lead over Democratic incumbent Patti Murray has vanished (-0.7 in favor of Murray). 
• West Virginia: Democratic candidate Joe Manchin has closed the gap with John Raese (+3 Raese).

As these and other races have narrowed to the point that their outcomes are in question, the goal of the Republicans to win a majority of Senate seats is looking more and more dubious.  So many factors will have to work in favor of the GOP that the odds of them getting 51 or more seats is now very unlikely.  Thus, I am sticking with my original projection: GOP 48, Democrats 52. 

Who's Hot, Who's Not: Examining Trends in U.S. Senate Races

One way to measure how well a candidate is doing to measure the momentum they are maintaining in their polling.  Rather than try and decipher the individual movements of polls (some battleground states and California have had more than a dozen polls taken since the beginning of June), below is a month-by-month summary of 15 states where significant movement has taken place in at least one month since June.  If a monthly poll shows a party initial with a "+", it denotes that the polls for that party's candidate significantly improved during that month; the opposite is true if a letter has a "-" next to it.  Months with only a dash indicate no significant movement for either party.

                            June     July    Aug   Sept   Current (R-D)   Result
AR                        -           -        R-      -        54-35                Still solid GOP lead
CA                        -           -         -       D+     43-47                Dems pulling ahead
CT                        R+       R+      -        -        45-51                No GOP momentum
DE                        R+       R+      -        -        40-54                Swap: GOP to Dem
FL                         R+       R+     R+     -         39-31               Stable GOP lead
MO                        R+       -        -        -         50-44               No GOP momentum
NV                         -          -        R+     R+      45-45               GOP and Dems tied
NH                         -          -        -        R+      49-37               Solidified GOP lead
NY - Gillibrand       -         R+     R+      -         39-50               Dems w/ solid lead
NY - Schumer        -         R+     -         -         35-57               Dems w/ solid lead
OH                        R+       R+     R+      -        51-38               GOP has solid lead
OR                        D+       -        R+      -        37-54               Dems have solid lead
SC                         R+       -        -         -        64-21               GOP has solid lead
WA                        -          -        -         R+     45-48               GOP closing gap
WI                         R+       R+     R+      -        47-42               Swap: Dem to GOP
                  
The overwhelming majority of the gains in momentum that have been made over the past four months have been on the side of the GOP.  Most of these movements, though, have not been game changers for either party. 

The Democrats have been able to begin to pull away in California and Oregon (despite an August GOP surge there). Likewise, Delaware has gone Democratic.  By comparison, only Wisconsin has changed from blue to red since June. More states may be trending one way or another but not enough surveys have been conducted in the past month to tell for sure. 

At present, six states have races where the parties are within five points of each other: CA (-4.9); IL (+1); KY (+3.4); NV (-0.2); WA (-2.5); and WV (+3.5).  If the election were held today, the results would be evenly split, giving the Democrats a 51-49 margin in the Senate. 

Senate Update for September 23

Since the beginning of September, for every point the Democrats have gained in the Senate polls, the Republicans have gained 2 points.  This, however, does not signal doom for the Democrats. 

If one steps back and looks at the total number of points changing sides from the beginning of the month until today, only about 115 points have changed hands, or about 3 points per race.  While most of these (77 points) are in favor of the GOP, they have had a mixed impact in the six states that will likely decide the extent of the Republicans’ gains in the Senate: CA, CO, IL, NV, WA, and WI. 

California: A bit of momentum may be building for incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, who has stretched her razor-thin lead from about 2 points to 4 points since September 1.  Nevertheless, only one poll (9/14-9/16) by the Democratically-aligned Public Policy Polling group has put Boxer at the all-important 50 percent mark once since February. 

Colorado: The GOP continues to hold this state (+4.5), but their improvements have been at a glacial pace.  Rasmussen’s next poll—which is due to be taken around next Tuesday—will be informative. 

Illinois: As with Colorado, Illinois is frozen in favor of the GOP by about 3 points. 

Nevada: This race is the archetype of a dead heat.  Republicans have closed the gap here, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid remains intractably favored by less than half a point. 

Washington: As with California, Democrats appear to be pulling away from the even match they were in at the beginning of the month.  Incumbent Senator Patty Murray is now about 3 points ahead of her challenger, Dino Rossi.   

Wisconsin: America’s Dairy Land is the only tipping point state where the GOP has achieved significant traction in the past three weeks, moving from 2 points behind to slightly more than 2 points ahead. 

Other Points of Interest

Party Gains: In the past two weeks, the biggest gains for the GOP have been in NC (+10), NY-1 (+9.5), AK (+7), NY-2 (+6), and GA (+5), while the best gains for the Democrats have been in AZ (-8), IN (-5), WA (-3.5), AR (-3.3), and DE (-3).  Of these, the most consequential are, in order, WA (dead heat to lean D), AK and NC (likely R to safe R), and both NY races. 

New York 1 and 2: While the NY races are still comfortably in Democratic hands, the conventional wisdom that incumbent Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer are invulnerable has been rattled, particularly with the latest Siena poll showing Gillibrand ahead of GOP challenger Joe DioGuardi by only one point.  Today's Real Clear Politics article on What the the Latest Polls Tell Us offers several explanations for this shift.  The next few days will tell whether this poll is an anomaly.  

Summary

Surprises certainly about for both sides over the next five-and-a-half weeks, but the law of averages suggests that they are just as likely to benefit either party.  Thus, I continue my prediction that the Democrats will carry the Senate, but in a substantially diminished capacity, 52-48. 

The Score in the Senate: Small Changes

Regardless of which race you are looking at, the Democrats continue to take a drubbing from the anti-incumbent mood of the American people.  Nevertheless, unless things change in a few key races, control of the Senate will remain in Democratic hands. 

• In the Senate, of the 37 seats in play, the GOP has a safe grip (10+ point advantage) on 13 of them, while the Democrats can say the same of only two (OR-17; VT-35).  This gives the Dems 42 seats, while the GOP has only 36.  
• If the margins are narrowed to leads of only five or more points, the GOP picks up seven more states (AK+8, GA+6.5, KY+6.8, MO+6.7, NC+9.5, OH+6.5, PA+5.7), while the Democrats gain Connecticut (-8.5) and West Virginia (-6).  This gives the Democrats a one-seat lead (44-43).
• If the margins are narrowed to the where-angels-fear-to-tread level of only one point or more advantage, the Republicans get Colorado (+4.3), Florida (+1.2), Illinois (+2), while the Democrats capture California (-2.2) and Nevada (-3).  While this creates a tie (46-46), these numbers are certain to see-saw in the next seven weeks.   
• But what of the "unknowns"?  Of the eight states where all candidates have yet to be chosen, history (and some yet-to-be added polling) suggests that New Hampshire and Delaware will go Republican (total: 48), while the Democrats will get Hawaii, Maryland, and New York Seats 1 and 2 (total: 50).  Which way Washington and Wisconsin will turn is anyone's guess. 

Is the US Senate in Play?

After reading today's article by Albert Hunt on Bloomberg's opinion page, I decided to see for myself whether enough (mostly Democratic) Senate races were close enough to create the possibility of the GOP obtaining a majority in November.  This is what I found:

• Since this blog began, I have only included data from Senate races where candidates from one or both parties are already known or ( in the case of a handful of states where primaries have yet to be held) are runaway favorites in their state.  At the beginning of the month, 13 states didn't fit either of these categories.  Today, that number is down to nine.  
• There is very little mystery, though, how most of these "unknowns" will vote.  Hawaii, Maryland, both seats in New York, West Virginia, and Wisconsin will likely go Blue, while Alaska (which is still counting absentee ballots), Delaware, and South Dakota will be Red States on November 2.  
• As before, when these seats are added to those not up for grabs this year and those that are already trending toward one party or the other, the Democrats remain in control, 52-48.  
• What could throw these results, though, is the number of seats where candidates are less than five points apart from each other.  On any given day since early August, there have been between seven and eight close races.  With the exception of Pennsylvania (which is beginning to trend Republican, +5.7), none of the remaining seats (CA-2.4, CO+4, FL+1, IL+3, NV-2, OH+4.3, WA-1.5) has moved out of this narrow range.  
• In order for the GOP to tie up Senate, they must keep every seat they already possess, plus two of the the three following states: California, Nevada, and Washington).  A GOP takeover will require capturing all three.  
• Are either of these scenarios possible?  Yes.  Are either of these scenarios likely?  That largely depends on poll movements in California and Nevada, where Sen. Barbara Boxer is tenaciously holding a one- to five-point lead over GOP challenger Carly Fiorina, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is holding an even narrower lead over challenger Sharron Angle.  Over the summer, Angle led in June, only to be knocked back in July and early August.  Polls have shown her ahead over Reid only once in the past seven weeks. 
• What is just as likely is that a couple of these barely Red States (particularly Florida and Illinois) could turn Blue in the next 10 weeks, leading to a 54-46 edge for the Democrats.  

Which will it be?  (A) A GOP tie or win; (B) a better than expected win for the Democrats, or (C) none of the above? 

Update: Battle for the US Senate 2010

Today's posting is a summary of the movement I'm seeing in the US Senate polls, starting in the Northeast:

• The race for Connecticut is for the Democrats to lose, but it has narrowed from a 23-point lead in June for Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to a 9-point contest against GOP businesswoman Linda McMahon. Most importantly, Blumenthal’s poll numbers have fallen out of the 50 percent “safe” zone for the first time since May. Since no polls have been taken in the state in two weeks, it will be very interesting to discover the latest direction of this traditionally Blue State.
• Now that Vermont's primary is over, it is fairly certain that the state will stay firmly in the hands of the Democrats.  Incumbent Patrick Leahy is ahead of store owner Len Britton by a margin most other Democratic candidates can only dream of, 64-29. 
• In Missouri, GOP Congressman Roy Blunt is pulling away from Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, 51-42.  The latest Rasmussen poll has Blunt ahead by 13 points (54-41).  If he stays on his present course, Blunt could extend his lead by as much as another 5-10 points. 
• In Arkansas, sentiment against the ever-increasing liberal voting record of Blanche Lincoln has given GOP challenger and Congressman John Boozman a 25-40 percent edge since January.  As Real Clear Politics notes, Sen. Lincoln may become the first incumbent to get less than 35 percent of the November re-election vote.
• If states are included where one candidate has at least at five-point lead, the Democrats’ seat number increases to three (CT+9), while the Republican count rises to 13 (GA+7, KY+5, MO+9, NC+9).   

We should know a little more by the middle of next week, when West Virginia’s primary is concluded (August 28) and a clearer picture of which GOP candidate has won in Alaska’s primary. 

Alabama's 2010 Races: The Upper and Lower Decks

Now for a look at some states-specific races:


1.  At the top of the pile is the governor's race, with GOP candidate Dr. Robert Bentley facing off against Democrat Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks.  According to Rasmussen's latest poll of likely voters (August 19), Bentley has a comfortable lead over Sparks, 58-34. 

2.  Next in line is the race for Lt. Governor, with Democratic incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. fighting off a challenge from GOP State Treasurer Kay Ivey.  June polls show Ivey with a 52-28 lead over Folsom.  Three things are working in Ms. Ivey's favor at present: (1) Folsom has yet to spend much of the $728,000 he has in his war chest to defend his seat; (2) Ivey is likely benefiting from the anti-incumbent wave in Montgomery; and (3) ironically, she has plenty of name recognition from spending almost a million dollars of her own money to run for governor before switching to the lieutenant governor race in April.    

3.  In the absence of very many polls for every House and Senate seat, I defer to the expertise of Doc's Political Parlor.  The battle for control of the state legislature is the closest it has been in decades, if ever.  In both the Senate (35 seats) and the House (105 seats), every position is up for grabs.  In the Senate, 15 seats are trending toward the Democrats, while another 15 look like they are in the hands of the GOP.  This leaves five races that are considered tossups (SD1, SD4, SD7, SD21, and SD29).  Three of the five seats (SD2, SD4, and SD21) have incumbent Democrats facing GOP challengers, while only one incumbent GOP senator faces a similar challenge (SD7). Whoever gets control of three or more of these seats will likely rule the Senate. 

The House is also split 50-50, with five seats in limbo (HD1, HD2, HD8, HD14, and HD85).  Unlike the Senate, though, every seat in play has been held the past two years by Democrats.  As with the Senate, control of the House will likely go to which party can take the majority of these districts.   

Focus: The 2010 Governors' Races

This election year is a big one for governorships, with 37 of them up for grabs.  Of the 13 seats that are not up for re-election, Democrats have seven, while the Republicans have six. 

1.  Of the 37 seats that are contested this year, 19 are currently held by Democrats, the Republicans hold 17, and one (Rhode Island) is held by an Independent. 

2.  As of August 23, nine states have yet to finalize their candidates.  Three states (AK, FL, and VT) will make their final picks tomorrow, and the remainder will make their choices on either September 14 or September 18.

3.  Of the races where candidates for both parties--or in the cases of CO, FL, ME, MA, MN, and RI, three parties--GOP candidates currently have safe leads (10 points or more) in 16 states:

AL+24        IL+13         NE+53           SD+32
AZ+20        IA+13         NV+13          TN+23
AR+14        KS+33        OK+14         UT+27
ID+17         MI+16         SC+32         WY+34



Democrats, on the other hand, have similar leads in only three states (CT+15, MN+11, RI+18). 

4.  If races are included where one side has a lead of 5 points or more, GOP governorships increase to 19 (GA+7, ME+8, PA+9, TX+9), while the Democrats pick up Massachusetts (+7). 

5.  Another interesting point: While 14 of the 15 races that are safely trending towards the Republicans have the GOP at 50 percent or more, none of the Democratic races has a candidate who is polling at 50 percent or better.  The closest to this goal is CT, where Stamford mayor Dan Malloy has consistently outpolled former ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley, 47-32. 

6. If trends continue at their present pace, the GOP stands to pick up at least 13 governorships, while the Democrats will get 4 that were previously held by Republicans.  These do not include the nine states that have yet to choose their final candidates. 

A Visit from the President: Breath of Life, or a Kiss of Death?

Over the past three days, Pres. Obama has visited five battleground states to help raise money for Democratic candidates, starting with Tom Barrett in Wisconsin on Monday.  But will the President’s appearances create any movement in the polls in any of these states, particularly among undecided voters?  The past 18 months have shown that, in most cases, a visit from the Commander in Chief has done little to nothing to shift public opinion toward the Democrats.  The polls in each of these states over the next 7 seven days may serve as a bellwether as to the President’s effectiveness in the 10 weeks remaining before November 2^nd.  

At present, of the five states the President is visiting (CA, FL, OH, WA, and WI), Washington is the only one with a polling advantage for the Democrats (49 D -47 R).   Of the remainder, Republicans in Ohio (43 R -36 D) appear to be gaining momentum, while the contestants in Wisconsin (47 R - 46 D) and California (47 R - 42 D) are routinely trading first place.  Florida will hold its primary next week, with Democratic nominees Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek both lagging behind likely Republican nominee Marco Rubio and Independent Charlie Crist (38 R - 33 I - 17/18 D [Greene/Meek]). 

It will be interesting to see the degree to which the President's visit will draw the five states' undecided pools into the Democratic fold.  Naturally, the best chances for the President to make inroads are in those states with large swaths of undecided voters.  Among these states, Ohio is the best bet (21 percent undecided), followed by California and Florida (11 percent apiece).  By comparison, the Democrats will have to really turn on the charm in Wisconsin and Washington, where only 5-7 percent haven't already chosen sides.

Primary In WI Tomorrow: Few Dem. Candidates Possess Early Safe Leads

With 78 days to go, the roster of players in the November 2 Senate elections continue to coalesce, albeit slowly.  The only state with a primary this week is Washington, where Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is expected to handily win the candidacy for her own party.  On the GOP side, Murray will face either former State Senator Dino Rossi or former NFL player Clint Didier.  Polls show her with 5-10 point leads over both candidates.

In addition to looking at the unweighted averages for each race, I've gone ahead and started making projections based on the trajectories of each candidate's polling percentages.  According to these data, only 10 Senate races have numbers where one side or the other has at least 50 percent of the votes. Nine of these races belong to Republicans, and none of these is particularly surprising (AL, AR, GA, ID, IN, IA, LA, ND, OK).  The only state where a Democrat has a similarly comfortable projected lead is Oregon (52.1 percent to 35.1 percent). 

A handful of races have projections approaching the 50 percent mark, including KY (47-38), MO (49-43), and NC (48-38).  Only one state--Connecticut--has similar numbers for the Democrats (49-40). 

Two races are in statistical dead heats (margins of 2 points or less between the candidates):

• Illinois and Wisconsin.  In Illinois, Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are tied at 40 percent apiece in a fight for the open seat vacated by Pres. Obama's interim successor, Roland Burris.  Burris has opted not to run, in part perhaps because he was appointed to the position by Illinois' former governor, Rod Blagojevich, who is under scrutiny for allegedly trying to sell the Senate seat.

• In Wisconsin, where Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold is projected to have a tenuous 1.5 percent lead over his likely Republican challenger, businessman Ron Johnson (39.6 to 38.1 percent). 

Important Primaries Today in CO, CT

In Colorado, both parties face big races today.  Among the Democrats, former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is challenging incumbent Michael Bennett, who took Ken Salazar's seat after Pres. Obama made him Secretary of the Interior.  The most recent surveys show Bennett with a lead of 3 to 6 points.

The race among the Republican challengers Jane Norton and Ken Buck has been a see-saw since March, with the opponents trading leads every 60 days.  At present, Norton is ahead by just two points, according to the Democratic polling company, PPP. 


In Connecticut, former Representative Rob Simmons is 22 points behind former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (28-50).  With more money than Simmons, McMahon's spring TV blitz plastered her name over the air.  Seeing his 10-point lead at the beginning of 2010 evaporate, Simmons suspended his campaign after the state convention endorsed McMahon, but re-entered the race in last month.  The winner will face Democrat Richard Blumenthal, who has been Connecticut's Attorney General for almost two decades. 

My predictions: In CO, Bennett wins by 3-5 points, as does Norton.  In CT, McMahon trounces Simmons, but it may not be enough to beat Blumenthal in three months. 

First Look at the U.S. House of Representatives

Without going into too much detail yet (I have yet to finish collecting my data), I will parrot what Real Clear Politics (RCP) is predicting regarding the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives. 

1. Of the 535 seats in the House, 255 are held by Democrats, giving them a 37 seat majority.  The GOP holds 178 seats, and two are vacant. 
2. If you accept RCP's predictions, the Dems have 149 "safe" seats, while the GOP has 164.  If you add the seats that are "likely" (11-20 point advantage) or are "leaning" (5-10 point advantage) toward either party, the numbers adjust to 202-201, respectively. 
3. A closer look at the "leans" and "likely" seats shows that the Democrats will probably pick up three seats currently held by Republicans, but the GOP will likely pick up 26 that are in Democrat hands, for a net GOP gain of 23 seats. 
4. Thirty-two seats are too close to call.  Of these, 31 are currently held by Democrats.  Looking at averages of the polls for these seats across 5 different polling groups, 17 of these seats kind of, sort of lean toward the Democrats (perhaps because they are currently held by Democrats).  None of the other seats is clear.   
5. If these numbers hold up, the Democrats keep their majority (at least 219 seats) in the House.  But, with three months to go before the election, much can change. 

Primaries Over in KS, MO

Two more primaries closed last night:

1. In Kansas, U.S. Representative Jerry Moran will face Democrat Lisa Johnston, an assistant dean at Baker University.  Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932. 

2. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt will face Democrat Robin Carnahan.  Initial polls suggest a six-point edge for Blunt (49-43), making the state a Likely GOP win. 


Fourteen primaries or runoffs remain before we know who all the players are for November 2.  The earliest of these will be next week (August 10; CO and CT), while the latest will be September 14 (DE, MD, NH, NY-1, NY-2).

Among the 23 states where the candidates are known, only 11 are incumbents.  Of these, 8 are safe (10+ point advantage) Republicans, two are likely (5-9 point advantage) Democrats, and one (NV; Harry Reid) is clinging to a one-point advantage. 

Four states where none of the major polling groups (e.g., Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Survey USA) has yet to conduct any surveys this summer are Alaska, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah.  Since all of these states are GOP strongholds, don't expect any significant polling until mid-September, probably by Rasmussen.

In sum:
The polling data we have suggests that the GOP so far has 40 seats, while the Democrats have 47.  Of the 13 remaining, at least six (AK, KS, MO, SC, SD, UT) will likely go Republican and four (HI, MD, VT, WV) will go Democrat.  With 51 seats, the Democrats will have at least half of the Senate, as compared to 46 for the GOP.  The degree of control the Democrats will have in the Senate will come down to three states: Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.


  

92 Days Till the November Elections...

With about three months to go until the U.S. House, Senate, and several governorships are up for grabs, here's a summary of how things are shaping up in the U.S. Senate:

1. Democrats and Independents (they caucus together) have 40 seats that are not up for grabs this election cycle; Republicans have only 23 "closed" seats, giving them a significant disadvantage at the beginning of the race.

2. Of the 37 seats that are contested this year, 20 are Democratic and 17 are Republican.  To obtain a majority, the Democrats / Independents need 11 wins, while the Republicans need 28 wins.  

3. Candidates for 15 of the 37 Senate seats have yet to be chosen.  The first of these will be today in Kansas and Missouri, followed by Colorado a week later (August 10). 

4. Of the remaining races where candidates for both sides have already been chosen, Republicans have safe leads of at least 10 percentage points in 10 races (AL+30, AR+25, GA+27, ID+37, IN+21, IA+17, LA+18, NC+10, ND+36, OK+34), while Democrats have only two races (CT+13, OR+18) with similar leads.  None of these races is particularly surprising.  While Republicans will likely pick up three of these seats from Democrats (AR, IN, ND), not one of these states is historically left leaning. 

 5. If Senate races are included where one side has a lead of 5-9 points, Republican seat gains rise to 12 (OH+6, PA+6), while the Democrats pick up California (+5).  The fact the Republicans have respectable leads in these traditional battleground states bodes well for the party later in the election cycle.