The Alabama Legislature: Is Major Change Coming?

With so many seats up for grabs in the Alabama legislature and so few unbiased polls making it to the public, it has been especially difficult to comment on who's winning and losing in the various House and Senate races. 

Thankfully, Doc's Political Parlor has posted summary data for both the House and Senate races, which they update from time to time.  Based on their numbers, here's what's happening in Alabama:

Senate: Six weeks ago, the GOP and Democrats were tied a 15 seats apiece, with 5 seats up for grabs.  A lot has changed since then, and most of it is not good news for the Democrats.  Three of the 5 toss-up seats have moved into GOP hands, as well as 2 seats formerly considered to be in Democratic hands.  Only 2 seats have moved away from the GOP: Kim Benefield's seat is now a toss-up, and Harri Anne Smith's Independent seat has moved from being a toss-up to Independent territory. 

In sum, the GOP now has a lead of 18-12, with 1 Independent (caucuses with the Democrats) and 4 toss-ups.  Remember, either party only has to have 18 seats to have a majority.  If this gain of at least 4 seats sticks, there will be a historic shift of power in the Legislature come January 2011. 

These numbers may be the tip of the iceberg.  Some insider information I've reviewed suggests the GOP is in striking distance of trouncing the Democrats, possibly picking up as many as 10 seats.  While this is a long shot, it would give the Republicans 24 of 35 seats, enough for a super-majority.

The House: There isn't much to report here.  At present, the Democrats have 50 seats under control, the GOP has 49, and 6 are anybody's guess.  This is about the same as six weeks ago. 

If the seats are broken down by "safe" (10+ point lead) and "likely" (5+ point lead), the Democrats have 35 safe, or 43 likely-or-better seats.  By comparison, Republicans have only 29 safe seats, or 40 likely-or-better seats, so they have a taller hill to climb to wrest control from the establishment.
 

Twelve Days and Counting...Where Are We?

Between the beginning of October and today, there is very little measurable difference in the number of seats held by either the Democrats or Republicans in the U.S. Senate:

                                                          10/1  10/20   Change
Safe GOP Seats (10+ points ahead)   17     17    
Safe Democrat Seats                            7       7
GOP Total (includes non-runners)      40      40

Democrat Total                                   47      47

Likely GOP Seats (5+ points)             23      20       -3
Likely Democrat Seats                         8        8
GOP Total                                          46      43
Democrat Total                                   48      48

Leaning GOP Seats (1+ points)          26     26
Leaning Democrat Seats                    10        9       -1
GOP Total                                           49     49
Democrat Total                                   50     49       -1

For the Republicans--and to a lesser extent, the Democrats--the seats each side has lost have not been picked up by the other party.  Rather, they are being swapped, with some seats disappearing into dead heats of less than 1 point between candidates. 

Most races are tightening across the country, but in most cases these changes are not enough to make any difference (yet) in the number of winners in both parties.  In fact, there are only three races where significant momentum is building.  Two of these are the New York races, where Sens. Gillibrand and Schumer are pulling away from their Republican challengers (-12 and -29, respectively). The third is Colorado, where Republican candidate Ken Buck is under attack for misspeaking during a debate and allegedly refusing to prosecute a rape case (at present, Buck is ahead by an average of 4 points).

Other races to watch for possible changes are:

• Alaska: Incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has reinserted herself into the campaign as a write-in candidate after having been defeated in the state's primary by Tea Party candidate Joe Miller.  As Real Clear Politics puts it, "the choice in Alaska will likely be what kind of Republican the state wants." At present, Miller is ahead by 1 point. 
• Pennsylvania: GOP candidate Joe Toomey's lead over Pat Sestak has largely evaporated in the past two weeks (+5 for Toomey).  
• Washington: As in PA,  GOP challenger Joe Rossi's lead over Democratic incumbent Patti Murray has vanished (-0.7 in favor of Murray). 
• West Virginia: Democratic candidate Joe Manchin has closed the gap with John Raese (+3 Raese).

As these and other races have narrowed to the point that their outcomes are in question, the goal of the Republicans to win a majority of Senate seats is looking more and more dubious.  So many factors will have to work in favor of the GOP that the odds of them getting 51 or more seats is now very unlikely.  Thus, I am sticking with my original projection: GOP 48, Democrats 52. 

Who's Hot, Who's Not: Examining Trends in U.S. Senate Races

One way to measure how well a candidate is doing to measure the momentum they are maintaining in their polling.  Rather than try and decipher the individual movements of polls (some battleground states and California have had more than a dozen polls taken since the beginning of June), below is a month-by-month summary of 15 states where significant movement has taken place in at least one month since June.  If a monthly poll shows a party initial with a "+", it denotes that the polls for that party's candidate significantly improved during that month; the opposite is true if a letter has a "-" next to it.  Months with only a dash indicate no significant movement for either party.

                            June     July    Aug   Sept   Current (R-D)   Result
AR                        -           -        R-      -        54-35                Still solid GOP lead
CA                        -           -         -       D+     43-47                Dems pulling ahead
CT                        R+       R+      -        -        45-51                No GOP momentum
DE                        R+       R+      -        -        40-54                Swap: GOP to Dem
FL                         R+       R+     R+     -         39-31               Stable GOP lead
MO                        R+       -        -        -         50-44               No GOP momentum
NV                         -          -        R+     R+      45-45               GOP and Dems tied
NH                         -          -        -        R+      49-37               Solidified GOP lead
NY - Gillibrand       -         R+     R+      -         39-50               Dems w/ solid lead
NY - Schumer        -         R+     -         -         35-57               Dems w/ solid lead
OH                        R+       R+     R+      -        51-38               GOP has solid lead
OR                        D+       -        R+      -        37-54               Dems have solid lead
SC                         R+       -        -         -        64-21               GOP has solid lead
WA                        -          -        -         R+     45-48               GOP closing gap
WI                         R+       R+     R+      -        47-42               Swap: Dem to GOP
                  
The overwhelming majority of the gains in momentum that have been made over the past four months have been on the side of the GOP.  Most of these movements, though, have not been game changers for either party. 

The Democrats have been able to begin to pull away in California and Oregon (despite an August GOP surge there). Likewise, Delaware has gone Democratic.  By comparison, only Wisconsin has changed from blue to red since June. More states may be trending one way or another but not enough surveys have been conducted in the past month to tell for sure. 

At present, six states have races where the parties are within five points of each other: CA (-4.9); IL (+1); KY (+3.4); NV (-0.2); WA (-2.5); and WV (+3.5).  If the election were held today, the results would be evenly split, giving the Democrats a 51-49 margin in the Senate.