Is the US Senate in Play?

After reading today's article by Albert Hunt on Bloomberg's opinion page, I decided to see for myself whether enough (mostly Democratic) Senate races were close enough to create the possibility of the GOP obtaining a majority in November.  This is what I found:

• Since this blog began, I have only included data from Senate races where candidates from one or both parties are already known or ( in the case of a handful of states where primaries have yet to be held) are runaway favorites in their state.  At the beginning of the month, 13 states didn't fit either of these categories.  Today, that number is down to nine.  
• There is very little mystery, though, how most of these "unknowns" will vote.  Hawaii, Maryland, both seats in New York, West Virginia, and Wisconsin will likely go Blue, while Alaska (which is still counting absentee ballots), Delaware, and South Dakota will be Red States on November 2.  
• As before, when these seats are added to those not up for grabs this year and those that are already trending toward one party or the other, the Democrats remain in control, 52-48.  
• What could throw these results, though, is the number of seats where candidates are less than five points apart from each other.  On any given day since early August, there have been between seven and eight close races.  With the exception of Pennsylvania (which is beginning to trend Republican, +5.7), none of the remaining seats (CA-2.4, CO+4, FL+1, IL+3, NV-2, OH+4.3, WA-1.5) has moved out of this narrow range.  
• In order for the GOP to tie up Senate, they must keep every seat they already possess, plus two of the the three following states: California, Nevada, and Washington).  A GOP takeover will require capturing all three.  
• Are either of these scenarios possible?  Yes.  Are either of these scenarios likely?  That largely depends on poll movements in California and Nevada, where Sen. Barbara Boxer is tenaciously holding a one- to five-point lead over GOP challenger Carly Fiorina, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is holding an even narrower lead over challenger Sharron Angle.  Over the summer, Angle led in June, only to be knocked back in July and early August.  Polls have shown her ahead over Reid only once in the past seven weeks. 
• What is just as likely is that a couple of these barely Red States (particularly Florida and Illinois) could turn Blue in the next 10 weeks, leading to a 54-46 edge for the Democrats.  

Which will it be?  (A) A GOP tie or win; (B) a better than expected win for the Democrats, or (C) none of the above? 

Update: Battle for the US Senate 2010

Today's posting is a summary of the movement I'm seeing in the US Senate polls, starting in the Northeast:

• The race for Connecticut is for the Democrats to lose, but it has narrowed from a 23-point lead in June for Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to a 9-point contest against GOP businesswoman Linda McMahon. Most importantly, Blumenthal’s poll numbers have fallen out of the 50 percent “safe” zone for the first time since May. Since no polls have been taken in the state in two weeks, it will be very interesting to discover the latest direction of this traditionally Blue State.
• Now that Vermont's primary is over, it is fairly certain that the state will stay firmly in the hands of the Democrats.  Incumbent Patrick Leahy is ahead of store owner Len Britton by a margin most other Democratic candidates can only dream of, 64-29. 
• In Missouri, GOP Congressman Roy Blunt is pulling away from Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, 51-42.  The latest Rasmussen poll has Blunt ahead by 13 points (54-41).  If he stays on his present course, Blunt could extend his lead by as much as another 5-10 points. 
• In Arkansas, sentiment against the ever-increasing liberal voting record of Blanche Lincoln has given GOP challenger and Congressman John Boozman a 25-40 percent edge since January.  As Real Clear Politics notes, Sen. Lincoln may become the first incumbent to get less than 35 percent of the November re-election vote.
• If states are included where one candidate has at least at five-point lead, the Democrats’ seat number increases to three (CT+9), while the Republican count rises to 13 (GA+7, KY+5, MO+9, NC+9).   

We should know a little more by the middle of next week, when West Virginia’s primary is concluded (August 28) and a clearer picture of which GOP candidate has won in Alaska’s primary. 

Alabama's 2010 Races: The Upper and Lower Decks

Now for a look at some states-specific races:


1.  At the top of the pile is the governor's race, with GOP candidate Dr. Robert Bentley facing off against Democrat Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks.  According to Rasmussen's latest poll of likely voters (August 19), Bentley has a comfortable lead over Sparks, 58-34. 

2.  Next in line is the race for Lt. Governor, with Democratic incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. fighting off a challenge from GOP State Treasurer Kay Ivey.  June polls show Ivey with a 52-28 lead over Folsom.  Three things are working in Ms. Ivey's favor at present: (1) Folsom has yet to spend much of the $728,000 he has in his war chest to defend his seat; (2) Ivey is likely benefiting from the anti-incumbent wave in Montgomery; and (3) ironically, she has plenty of name recognition from spending almost a million dollars of her own money to run for governor before switching to the lieutenant governor race in April.    

3.  In the absence of very many polls for every House and Senate seat, I defer to the expertise of Doc's Political Parlor.  The battle for control of the state legislature is the closest it has been in decades, if ever.  In both the Senate (35 seats) and the House (105 seats), every position is up for grabs.  In the Senate, 15 seats are trending toward the Democrats, while another 15 look like they are in the hands of the GOP.  This leaves five races that are considered tossups (SD1, SD4, SD7, SD21, and SD29).  Three of the five seats (SD2, SD4, and SD21) have incumbent Democrats facing GOP challengers, while only one incumbent GOP senator faces a similar challenge (SD7). Whoever gets control of three or more of these seats will likely rule the Senate. 

The House is also split 50-50, with five seats in limbo (HD1, HD2, HD8, HD14, and HD85).  Unlike the Senate, though, every seat in play has been held the past two years by Democrats.  As with the Senate, control of the House will likely go to which party can take the majority of these districts.   

Focus: The 2010 Governors' Races

This election year is a big one for governorships, with 37 of them up for grabs.  Of the 13 seats that are not up for re-election, Democrats have seven, while the Republicans have six. 

1.  Of the 37 seats that are contested this year, 19 are currently held by Democrats, the Republicans hold 17, and one (Rhode Island) is held by an Independent. 

2.  As of August 23, nine states have yet to finalize their candidates.  Three states (AK, FL, and VT) will make their final picks tomorrow, and the remainder will make their choices on either September 14 or September 18.

3.  Of the races where candidates for both parties--or in the cases of CO, FL, ME, MA, MN, and RI, three parties--GOP candidates currently have safe leads (10 points or more) in 16 states:

AL+24        IL+13         NE+53           SD+32
AZ+20        IA+13         NV+13          TN+23
AR+14        KS+33        OK+14         UT+27
ID+17         MI+16         SC+32         WY+34



Democrats, on the other hand, have similar leads in only three states (CT+15, MN+11, RI+18). 

4.  If races are included where one side has a lead of 5 points or more, GOP governorships increase to 19 (GA+7, ME+8, PA+9, TX+9), while the Democrats pick up Massachusetts (+7). 

5.  Another interesting point: While 14 of the 15 races that are safely trending towards the Republicans have the GOP at 50 percent or more, none of the Democratic races has a candidate who is polling at 50 percent or better.  The closest to this goal is CT, where Stamford mayor Dan Malloy has consistently outpolled former ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley, 47-32. 

6. If trends continue at their present pace, the GOP stands to pick up at least 13 governorships, while the Democrats will get 4 that were previously held by Republicans.  These do not include the nine states that have yet to choose their final candidates. 

A Visit from the President: Breath of Life, or a Kiss of Death?

Over the past three days, Pres. Obama has visited five battleground states to help raise money for Democratic candidates, starting with Tom Barrett in Wisconsin on Monday.  But will the President’s appearances create any movement in the polls in any of these states, particularly among undecided voters?  The past 18 months have shown that, in most cases, a visit from the Commander in Chief has done little to nothing to shift public opinion toward the Democrats.  The polls in each of these states over the next 7 seven days may serve as a bellwether as to the President’s effectiveness in the 10 weeks remaining before November 2^nd.  

At present, of the five states the President is visiting (CA, FL, OH, WA, and WI), Washington is the only one with a polling advantage for the Democrats (49 D -47 R).   Of the remainder, Republicans in Ohio (43 R -36 D) appear to be gaining momentum, while the contestants in Wisconsin (47 R - 46 D) and California (47 R - 42 D) are routinely trading first place.  Florida will hold its primary next week, with Democratic nominees Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek both lagging behind likely Republican nominee Marco Rubio and Independent Charlie Crist (38 R - 33 I - 17/18 D [Greene/Meek]). 

It will be interesting to see the degree to which the President's visit will draw the five states' undecided pools into the Democratic fold.  Naturally, the best chances for the President to make inroads are in those states with large swaths of undecided voters.  Among these states, Ohio is the best bet (21 percent undecided), followed by California and Florida (11 percent apiece).  By comparison, the Democrats will have to really turn on the charm in Wisconsin and Washington, where only 5-7 percent haven't already chosen sides.

Primary In WI Tomorrow: Few Dem. Candidates Possess Early Safe Leads

With 78 days to go, the roster of players in the November 2 Senate elections continue to coalesce, albeit slowly.  The only state with a primary this week is Washington, where Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is expected to handily win the candidacy for her own party.  On the GOP side, Murray will face either former State Senator Dino Rossi or former NFL player Clint Didier.  Polls show her with 5-10 point leads over both candidates.

In addition to looking at the unweighted averages for each race, I've gone ahead and started making projections based on the trajectories of each candidate's polling percentages.  According to these data, only 10 Senate races have numbers where one side or the other has at least 50 percent of the votes. Nine of these races belong to Republicans, and none of these is particularly surprising (AL, AR, GA, ID, IN, IA, LA, ND, OK).  The only state where a Democrat has a similarly comfortable projected lead is Oregon (52.1 percent to 35.1 percent). 

A handful of races have projections approaching the 50 percent mark, including KY (47-38), MO (49-43), and NC (48-38).  Only one state--Connecticut--has similar numbers for the Democrats (49-40). 

Two races are in statistical dead heats (margins of 2 points or less between the candidates):

• Illinois and Wisconsin.  In Illinois, Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are tied at 40 percent apiece in a fight for the open seat vacated by Pres. Obama's interim successor, Roland Burris.  Burris has opted not to run, in part perhaps because he was appointed to the position by Illinois' former governor, Rod Blagojevich, who is under scrutiny for allegedly trying to sell the Senate seat.

• In Wisconsin, where Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold is projected to have a tenuous 1.5 percent lead over his likely Republican challenger, businessman Ron Johnson (39.6 to 38.1 percent). 

Important Primaries Today in CO, CT

In Colorado, both parties face big races today.  Among the Democrats, former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is challenging incumbent Michael Bennett, who took Ken Salazar's seat after Pres. Obama made him Secretary of the Interior.  The most recent surveys show Bennett with a lead of 3 to 6 points.

The race among the Republican challengers Jane Norton and Ken Buck has been a see-saw since March, with the opponents trading leads every 60 days.  At present, Norton is ahead by just two points, according to the Democratic polling company, PPP. 


In Connecticut, former Representative Rob Simmons is 22 points behind former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (28-50).  With more money than Simmons, McMahon's spring TV blitz plastered her name over the air.  Seeing his 10-point lead at the beginning of 2010 evaporate, Simmons suspended his campaign after the state convention endorsed McMahon, but re-entered the race in last month.  The winner will face Democrat Richard Blumenthal, who has been Connecticut's Attorney General for almost two decades. 

My predictions: In CO, Bennett wins by 3-5 points, as does Norton.  In CT, McMahon trounces Simmons, but it may not be enough to beat Blumenthal in three months. 

First Look at the U.S. House of Representatives

Without going into too much detail yet (I have yet to finish collecting my data), I will parrot what Real Clear Politics (RCP) is predicting regarding the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives. 

1. Of the 535 seats in the House, 255 are held by Democrats, giving them a 37 seat majority.  The GOP holds 178 seats, and two are vacant. 
2. If you accept RCP's predictions, the Dems have 149 "safe" seats, while the GOP has 164.  If you add the seats that are "likely" (11-20 point advantage) or are "leaning" (5-10 point advantage) toward either party, the numbers adjust to 202-201, respectively. 
3. A closer look at the "leans" and "likely" seats shows that the Democrats will probably pick up three seats currently held by Republicans, but the GOP will likely pick up 26 that are in Democrat hands, for a net GOP gain of 23 seats. 
4. Thirty-two seats are too close to call.  Of these, 31 are currently held by Democrats.  Looking at averages of the polls for these seats across 5 different polling groups, 17 of these seats kind of, sort of lean toward the Democrats (perhaps because they are currently held by Democrats).  None of the other seats is clear.   
5. If these numbers hold up, the Democrats keep their majority (at least 219 seats) in the House.  But, with three months to go before the election, much can change. 

Primaries Over in KS, MO

Two more primaries closed last night:

1. In Kansas, U.S. Representative Jerry Moran will face Democrat Lisa Johnston, an assistant dean at Baker University.  Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932. 

2. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt will face Democrat Robin Carnahan.  Initial polls suggest a six-point edge for Blunt (49-43), making the state a Likely GOP win. 


Fourteen primaries or runoffs remain before we know who all the players are for November 2.  The earliest of these will be next week (August 10; CO and CT), while the latest will be September 14 (DE, MD, NH, NY-1, NY-2).

Among the 23 states where the candidates are known, only 11 are incumbents.  Of these, 8 are safe (10+ point advantage) Republicans, two are likely (5-9 point advantage) Democrats, and one (NV; Harry Reid) is clinging to a one-point advantage. 

Four states where none of the major polling groups (e.g., Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Survey USA) has yet to conduct any surveys this summer are Alaska, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah.  Since all of these states are GOP strongholds, don't expect any significant polling until mid-September, probably by Rasmussen.

In sum:
The polling data we have suggests that the GOP so far has 40 seats, while the Democrats have 47.  Of the 13 remaining, at least six (AK, KS, MO, SC, SD, UT) will likely go Republican and four (HI, MD, VT, WV) will go Democrat.  With 51 seats, the Democrats will have at least half of the Senate, as compared to 46 for the GOP.  The degree of control the Democrats will have in the Senate will come down to three states: Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.


  

92 Days Till the November Elections...

With about three months to go until the U.S. House, Senate, and several governorships are up for grabs, here's a summary of how things are shaping up in the U.S. Senate:

1. Democrats and Independents (they caucus together) have 40 seats that are not up for grabs this election cycle; Republicans have only 23 "closed" seats, giving them a significant disadvantage at the beginning of the race.

2. Of the 37 seats that are contested this year, 20 are Democratic and 17 are Republican.  To obtain a majority, the Democrats / Independents need 11 wins, while the Republicans need 28 wins.  

3. Candidates for 15 of the 37 Senate seats have yet to be chosen.  The first of these will be today in Kansas and Missouri, followed by Colorado a week later (August 10). 

4. Of the remaining races where candidates for both sides have already been chosen, Republicans have safe leads of at least 10 percentage points in 10 races (AL+30, AR+25, GA+27, ID+37, IN+21, IA+17, LA+18, NC+10, ND+36, OK+34), while Democrats have only two races (CT+13, OR+18) with similar leads.  None of these races is particularly surprising.  While Republicans will likely pick up three of these seats from Democrats (AR, IN, ND), not one of these states is historically left leaning. 

 5. If Senate races are included where one side has a lead of 5-9 points, Republican seat gains rise to 12 (OH+6, PA+6), while the Democrats pick up California (+5).  The fact the Republicans have respectable leads in these traditional battleground states bodes well for the party later in the election cycle.