Is the US Senate in Play?

After reading today's article by Albert Hunt on Bloomberg's opinion page, I decided to see for myself whether enough (mostly Democratic) Senate races were close enough to create the possibility of the GOP obtaining a majority in November.  This is what I found:

• Since this blog began, I have only included data from Senate races where candidates from one or both parties are already known or ( in the case of a handful of states where primaries have yet to be held) are runaway favorites in their state.  At the beginning of the month, 13 states didn't fit either of these categories.  Today, that number is down to nine.  
• There is very little mystery, though, how most of these "unknowns" will vote.  Hawaii, Maryland, both seats in New York, West Virginia, and Wisconsin will likely go Blue, while Alaska (which is still counting absentee ballots), Delaware, and South Dakota will be Red States on November 2.  
• As before, when these seats are added to those not up for grabs this year and those that are already trending toward one party or the other, the Democrats remain in control, 52-48.  
• What could throw these results, though, is the number of seats where candidates are less than five points apart from each other.  On any given day since early August, there have been between seven and eight close races.  With the exception of Pennsylvania (which is beginning to trend Republican, +5.7), none of the remaining seats (CA-2.4, CO+4, FL+1, IL+3, NV-2, OH+4.3, WA-1.5) has moved out of this narrow range.  
• In order for the GOP to tie up Senate, they must keep every seat they already possess, plus two of the the three following states: California, Nevada, and Washington).  A GOP takeover will require capturing all three.  
• Are either of these scenarios possible?  Yes.  Are either of these scenarios likely?  That largely depends on poll movements in California and Nevada, where Sen. Barbara Boxer is tenaciously holding a one- to five-point lead over GOP challenger Carly Fiorina, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is holding an even narrower lead over challenger Sharron Angle.  Over the summer, Angle led in June, only to be knocked back in July and early August.  Polls have shown her ahead over Reid only once in the past seven weeks. 
• What is just as likely is that a couple of these barely Red States (particularly Florida and Illinois) could turn Blue in the next 10 weeks, leading to a 54-46 edge for the Democrats.  

Which will it be?  (A) A GOP tie or win; (B) a better than expected win for the Democrats, or (C) none of the above?