Now for a look at some states-specific races:
1. At the top of the pile is the governor's race, with GOP candidate Dr. Robert Bentley facing off against Democrat Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks. According to Rasmussen's latest poll of likely voters (August 19), Bentley has a comfortable lead over Sparks, 58-34.
2. Next in line is the race for Lt. Governor, with Democratic incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. fighting off a challenge from GOP State Treasurer Kay Ivey. June polls show Ivey with a 52-28 lead over Folsom. Three things are working in Ms. Ivey's favor at present: (1) Folsom has yet to spend much of the $728,000 he has in his war chest to defend his seat; (2) Ivey is likely benefiting from the anti-incumbent wave in Montgomery; and (3) ironically, she has plenty of name recognition from spending almost a million dollars of her own money to run for governor before switching to the lieutenant governor race in April.
3. In the absence of very many polls for every House and Senate seat, I defer to the expertise of Doc's Political Parlor. The battle for control of the state legislature is the closest it has been in decades, if ever. In both the Senate (35 seats) and the House (105 seats), every position is up for grabs. In the Senate, 15 seats are trending toward the Democrats, while another 15 look like they are in the hands of the GOP. This leaves five races that are considered tossups (SD1, SD4, SD7, SD21, and SD29). Three of the five seats (SD2, SD4, and SD21) have incumbent Democrats facing GOP challengers, while only one incumbent GOP senator faces a similar challenge (SD7). Whoever gets control of three or more of these seats will likely rule the Senate.
The House is also split 50-50, with five seats in limbo (HD1, HD2, HD8, HD14, and HD85). Unlike the Senate, though, every seat in play has been held the past two years by Democrats. As with the Senate, control of the House will likely go to which party can take the majority of these districts.
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