Primaries Over in KS, MO

Two more primaries closed last night:

1. In Kansas, U.S. Representative Jerry Moran will face Democrat Lisa Johnston, an assistant dean at Baker University.  Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932. 

2. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt will face Democrat Robin Carnahan.  Initial polls suggest a six-point edge for Blunt (49-43), making the state a Likely GOP win. 


Fourteen primaries or runoffs remain before we know who all the players are for November 2.  The earliest of these will be next week (August 10; CO and CT), while the latest will be September 14 (DE, MD, NH, NY-1, NY-2).

Among the 23 states where the candidates are known, only 11 are incumbents.  Of these, 8 are safe (10+ point advantage) Republicans, two are likely (5-9 point advantage) Democrats, and one (NV; Harry Reid) is clinging to a one-point advantage. 

Four states where none of the major polling groups (e.g., Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Survey USA) has yet to conduct any surveys this summer are Alaska, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah.  Since all of these states are GOP strongholds, don't expect any significant polling until mid-September, probably by Rasmussen.

In sum:
The polling data we have suggests that the GOP so far has 40 seats, while the Democrats have 47.  Of the 13 remaining, at least six (AK, KS, MO, SC, SD, UT) will likely go Republican and four (HI, MD, VT, WV) will go Democrat.  With 51 seats, the Democrats will have at least half of the Senate, as compared to 46 for the GOP.  The degree of control the Democrats will have in the Senate will come down to three states: Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.