92 Days Till the November Elections...

With about three months to go until the U.S. House, Senate, and several governorships are up for grabs, here's a summary of how things are shaping up in the U.S. Senate:

1. Democrats and Independents (they caucus together) have 40 seats that are not up for grabs this election cycle; Republicans have only 23 "closed" seats, giving them a significant disadvantage at the beginning of the race.

2. Of the 37 seats that are contested this year, 20 are Democratic and 17 are Republican.  To obtain a majority, the Democrats / Independents need 11 wins, while the Republicans need 28 wins.  

3. Candidates for 15 of the 37 Senate seats have yet to be chosen.  The first of these will be today in Kansas and Missouri, followed by Colorado a week later (August 10). 

4. Of the remaining races where candidates for both sides have already been chosen, Republicans have safe leads of at least 10 percentage points in 10 races (AL+30, AR+25, GA+27, ID+37, IN+21, IA+17, LA+18, NC+10, ND+36, OK+34), while Democrats have only two races (CT+13, OR+18) with similar leads.  None of these races is particularly surprising.  While Republicans will likely pick up three of these seats from Democrats (AR, IN, ND), not one of these states is historically left leaning. 

 5. If Senate races are included where one side has a lead of 5-9 points, Republican seat gains rise to 12 (OH+6, PA+6), while the Democrats pick up California (+5).  The fact the Republicans have respectable leads in these traditional battleground states bodes well for the party later in the election cycle.