Predictions for Tomorrow: A Historic Power Shift in AL, Less So Nationwide

Let's start with the big state races first:

Alabama House: Outside of its traditional strongholds, support for the Democratic party is collapsing. 

1. Since October 20, 4 of the 6 toss-up races have moved toward the GOP, with only one (HD-1) trending toward the Democrats.   Moreover, 6 races that were once though to have Democratic winners are now toss-ups. 
2. Two weeks ago, Democrats had 50 of the 105 seats in the House, with the GOP in control of 49.  Today, the GOP has 54, while the Democrats are down to 42.  Even if all 9 toss-ups go to the Democrats, the GOP will be in control of the House.  

Alabama Senate: Come tomorrow, the GOP stands to have at 17 seats, up from the present total of 14.  The Democrats will lose at least 7 seats, bringing their total down from 20 to 13.  Not counting the one Independent seat, 4 toss-ups remain.  At least one of these will go to the Republicans, giving them control of the both the House and Senate for the first time in almost seven generations. 

Governor's Race: Despite the lack of trust that Dr. Robert Bentley's has engendered through his covert acceptance of AEA funds, he will still win. 

Lieutenant Governor's Race: The race between incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. and former Treasury Secretary Kay Ivey will be much closer.  Both candidates have the albatross of the state's PACT program around their necks, but the stigma will be associated with Ivey more, as she was the Chairman of the program.  If turnout is high, Folsom will win.  If not, Ivey still has a chance. 

Now, a look at the national picture: 


Alabama's 2nd District: The future is not looking as favorable as it was four months ago for one-term Rep. Bobby Bright (D) as he faces a challenge from Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). The race maystill be close, but I think Roby has at least a 50 percent chance of winning.  Here's why:

1. With the exception of Lowndes and Bullock Counties, the Second District is largely Republican, and tends to vote two-thirds or more in favor of GOP candidates. 
2. Bright defeated his GOP challenger, Jay Love, with only 50.3 percent (about 2,000) of all votes in 2008, many of which came from the African-American fervor for President Obama.  That same passion has not materialized this election year.
3. The weather may also spoil Bright's chances of winning, as rain is predicted on the west side of his district for much of the day.  
4. All of these variables will likely affect turnout for both parties.  Since 1998, the district has averaged around 220,000 votes per general election.  The exception was 2008, when almost 290,000 district residents voted.  To see who will tomorrow night, watch the vote count.  If, when half of the ballot boxes in the district are accounted for, only 100,000 votes or less have been counted, Roby will likely win.  If the count is above 120,000, Bright is still in the game.   

US Senate: Real Clear Politics has the Republicans and Democrats with 45 and 48 seats, respectively, with 7 toss-ups.  Of these, at least 2 (CA, WV) will go Democratic, while another 3 (CO, IL, PA) will go GOP.  The question marks are Nevada (R+2.7) and Washington, where incumbent Patti Murray (D) has a lead of less than half a point over challenger Dino Rossi. Either way, the Democrats keep control of the Senate, by either 1 or 2 seats.

US House: In the House, 218 seats are needed for a majority.  Again, using data from Real Clear Politics, the GOP stands to gain anywhere from 45 to 88 seats in the House of Representatives, with a comfortable average of about 66-67 seats. At best, this will give Republicans 267 seats, and at worst, 224.  For the GOP, it is not a question of winning, but a question of the strength of their win.  Given the lack of Democratic enthusiasm in this electoral cycle, I predict a GOP pick-up of between 68-70 seats. 


As an aside, please vote tomorrow.  It is one of the few ways we can participate directly in the Great Experiment we call America.