A Visit from the President: Breath of Life, or a Kiss of Death?

Over the past three days, Pres. Obama has visited five battleground states to help raise money for Democratic candidates, starting with Tom Barrett in Wisconsin on Monday.  But will the President’s appearances create any movement in the polls in any of these states, particularly among undecided voters?  The past 18 months have shown that, in most cases, a visit from the Commander in Chief has done little to nothing to shift public opinion toward the Democrats.  The polls in each of these states over the next 7 seven days may serve as a bellwether as to the President’s effectiveness in the 10 weeks remaining before November 2^nd.  

At present, of the five states the President is visiting (CA, FL, OH, WA, and WI), Washington is the only one with a polling advantage for the Democrats (49 D -47 R).   Of the remainder, Republicans in Ohio (43 R -36 D) appear to be gaining momentum, while the contestants in Wisconsin (47 R - 46 D) and California (47 R - 42 D) are routinely trading first place.  Florida will hold its primary next week, with Democratic nominees Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek both lagging behind likely Republican nominee Marco Rubio and Independent Charlie Crist (38 R - 33 I - 17/18 D [Greene/Meek]). 

It will be interesting to see the degree to which the President's visit will draw the five states' undecided pools into the Democratic fold.  Naturally, the best chances for the President to make inroads are in those states with large swaths of undecided voters.  Among these states, Ohio is the best bet (21 percent undecided), followed by California and Florida (11 percent apiece).  By comparison, the Democrats will have to really turn on the charm in Wisconsin and Washington, where only 5-7 percent haven't already chosen sides.