The Score in the Senate: Small Changes

Regardless of which race you are looking at, the Democrats continue to take a drubbing from the anti-incumbent mood of the American people.  Nevertheless, unless things change in a few key races, control of the Senate will remain in Democratic hands. 

• In the Senate, of the 37 seats in play, the GOP has a safe grip (10+ point advantage) on 13 of them, while the Democrats can say the same of only two (OR-17; VT-35).  This gives the Dems 42 seats, while the GOP has only 36.  
• If the margins are narrowed to leads of only five or more points, the GOP picks up seven more states (AK+8, GA+6.5, KY+6.8, MO+6.7, NC+9.5, OH+6.5, PA+5.7), while the Democrats gain Connecticut (-8.5) and West Virginia (-6).  This gives the Democrats a one-seat lead (44-43).
• If the margins are narrowed to the where-angels-fear-to-tread level of only one point or more advantage, the Republicans get Colorado (+4.3), Florida (+1.2), Illinois (+2), while the Democrats capture California (-2.2) and Nevada (-3).  While this creates a tie (46-46), these numbers are certain to see-saw in the next seven weeks.   
• But what of the "unknowns"?  Of the eight states where all candidates have yet to be chosen, history (and some yet-to-be added polling) suggests that New Hampshire and Delaware will go Republican (total: 48), while the Democrats will get Hawaii, Maryland, and New York Seats 1 and 2 (total: 50).  Which way Washington and Wisconsin will turn is anyone's guess.