Twelve Days and Counting...Where Are We?

Between the beginning of October and today, there is very little measurable difference in the number of seats held by either the Democrats or Republicans in the U.S. Senate:

                                                          10/1  10/20   Change
Safe GOP Seats (10+ points ahead)   17     17    
Safe Democrat Seats                            7       7
GOP Total (includes non-runners)      40      40

Democrat Total                                   47      47

Likely GOP Seats (5+ points)             23      20       -3
Likely Democrat Seats                         8        8
GOP Total                                          46      43
Democrat Total                                   48      48

Leaning GOP Seats (1+ points)          26     26
Leaning Democrat Seats                    10        9       -1
GOP Total                                           49     49
Democrat Total                                   50     49       -1

For the Republicans--and to a lesser extent, the Democrats--the seats each side has lost have not been picked up by the other party.  Rather, they are being swapped, with some seats disappearing into dead heats of less than 1 point between candidates. 

Most races are tightening across the country, but in most cases these changes are not enough to make any difference (yet) in the number of winners in both parties.  In fact, there are only three races where significant momentum is building.  Two of these are the New York races, where Sens. Gillibrand and Schumer are pulling away from their Republican challengers (-12 and -29, respectively). The third is Colorado, where Republican candidate Ken Buck is under attack for misspeaking during a debate and allegedly refusing to prosecute a rape case (at present, Buck is ahead by an average of 4 points).

Other races to watch for possible changes are:

• Alaska: Incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has reinserted herself into the campaign as a write-in candidate after having been defeated in the state's primary by Tea Party candidate Joe Miller.  As Real Clear Politics puts it, "the choice in Alaska will likely be what kind of Republican the state wants." At present, Miller is ahead by 1 point. 
• Pennsylvania: GOP candidate Joe Toomey's lead over Pat Sestak has largely evaporated in the past two weeks (+5 for Toomey).  
• Washington: As in PA,  GOP challenger Joe Rossi's lead over Democratic incumbent Patti Murray has vanished (-0.7 in favor of Murray). 
• West Virginia: Democratic candidate Joe Manchin has closed the gap with John Raese (+3 Raese).

As these and other races have narrowed to the point that their outcomes are in question, the goal of the Republicans to win a majority of Senate seats is looking more and more dubious.  So many factors will have to work in favor of the GOP that the odds of them getting 51 or more seats is now very unlikely.  Thus, I am sticking with my original projection: GOP 48, Democrats 52.