With so many seats up for grabs in the Alabama legislature and so few unbiased polls making it to the public, it has been especially difficult to comment on who's winning and losing in the various House and Senate races.
Thankfully, Doc's Political Parlor has posted summary data for both the House and Senate races, which they update from time to time. Based on their numbers, here's what's happening in Alabama:
Senate: Six weeks ago, the GOP and Democrats were tied a 15 seats apiece, with 5 seats up for grabs. A lot has changed since then, and most of it is not good news for the Democrats. Three of the 5 toss-up seats have moved into GOP hands, as well as 2 seats formerly considered to be in Democratic hands. Only 2 seats have moved away from the GOP: Kim Benefield's seat is now a toss-up, and Harri Anne Smith's Independent seat has moved from being a toss-up to Independent territory.
In sum, the GOP now has a lead of 18-12, with 1 Independent (caucuses with the Democrats) and 4 toss-ups. Remember, either party only has to have 18 seats to have a majority. If this gain of at least 4 seats sticks, there will be a historic shift of power in the Legislature come January 2011.
These numbers may be the tip of the iceberg. Some insider information I've reviewed suggests the GOP is in striking distance of trouncing the Democrats, possibly picking up as many as 10 seats. While this is a long shot, it would give the Republicans 24 of 35 seats, enough for a super-majority.
The House: There isn't much to report here. At present, the Democrats have 50 seats under control, the GOP has 49, and 6 are anybody's guess. This is about the same as six weeks ago.
If the seats are broken down by "safe" (10+ point lead) and "likely" (5+ point lead), the Democrats have 35 safe, or 43 likely-or-better seats. By comparison, Republicans have only 29 safe seats, or 40 likely-or-better seats, so they have a taller hill to climb to wrest control from the establishment.
I guess the race will get tight now.
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