American Indicators Announces Partnership with Beacon Institute

“Job creation” is the catch phrase that is guaranteed to get attention in today’s economic and political landscape. But who or what can create more jobs? Certainly not politicians or the government, regardless of what they claim. 

The hard truth is this: jobs are created when businesses expand or locate in a marketplace that is conducive to growth. At the macro level, keeping businesses and attracting new ones are the lifeblood of a state’s economy. When you take it to the micro level, individual cities come into play. 

Most think tanks can easily identify the four or five best places that new businesses would want to locate in your state, as well as the ones that should be avoided at all costs. But what about the dozens of cities and incorporated areas in between the winners and the losers? How do they rate? 

The Beacon Center of Tennessee and American Indicators have partnered to offer all State Policy Network members a chance to purchase personalized studies tailored specifically for their state titled 2012 Business-Friendly Cities. 

Each study will be modeled on the Beacon Center’s highly successful How Business-Friendly Are Tennessee’s Cities? report, which ranks the state’s 50 most populous cities according to their business climates. The categories reflect each city’s commitment to a business-friendly atmosphere based on economic vitality and community appeal, and the absence of stifling taxes and restrictive regulatory burdens. 

Each report will compare and contrast a number of factors, including: 

• What cities have the best tax policy?
• Which have more community appeal, such as low costs of living and crime rates, and quality educational performance? 
• What cities have experienced the most year-over-year population and job growth? 
• What type of economic vitality does each city have, including the average incomes for local residents?

This report is second in popularity only to the Beacon Center’s famous Pork Report.  In 2011, How Business-Friendly Are Tennessee’s Cities? garnered nearly 50 major media hits, including television appearances, multiple radio interviews, and dozens of newspaper mentions.

The city-by-city ranking, the only one of its kind in Tennessee, has become an incubator where local governments compete to lower taxes and regulations, boosting their friendliness to businesses. Your think tank can lead the way in “state” by creating a positive pressure that will encourage competition between cities and spur a greater awareness of overlooked “best buys” for businesses in the market for a place to locate.

2012 Business-Friendly Cities report is a sound value for think tanks because it promotes:

• The value of small tax burdens, job growth, and quality education;
•  Competitiveness among cities in your state; and
•  Positive name recognition for your think tank through significant media attention.

Each study comes with a full report, complete with appendices outlining each city’s performance in the aforementioned categories, as well as the subcategories that make up the categorical rankings.  Turnaround time is approximately 2-3 weeks.

Contact me at 205-999-2311 or americanindicators@gmail.com  for more information. 

 

Blogging Again...This Time, It's the Environment

Happy New Year!

I have begun blogging for Environmental Trends, a nationally renowned, free-market think tank website founded by the Pacific Research Institute.  At present, I have two blogs posted: one on nuclear power, and the other on improvements in environmental quality.  I look forward to your comments. 

Predictions for Tomorrow: A Historic Power Shift in AL, Less So Nationwide

Let's start with the big state races first:

Alabama House: Outside of its traditional strongholds, support for the Democratic party is collapsing. 

1. Since October 20, 4 of the 6 toss-up races have moved toward the GOP, with only one (HD-1) trending toward the Democrats.   Moreover, 6 races that were once though to have Democratic winners are now toss-ups. 
2. Two weeks ago, Democrats had 50 of the 105 seats in the House, with the GOP in control of 49.  Today, the GOP has 54, while the Democrats are down to 42.  Even if all 9 toss-ups go to the Democrats, the GOP will be in control of the House.  

Alabama Senate: Come tomorrow, the GOP stands to have at 17 seats, up from the present total of 14.  The Democrats will lose at least 7 seats, bringing their total down from 20 to 13.  Not counting the one Independent seat, 4 toss-ups remain.  At least one of these will go to the Republicans, giving them control of the both the House and Senate for the first time in almost seven generations. 

Governor's Race: Despite the lack of trust that Dr. Robert Bentley's has engendered through his covert acceptance of AEA funds, he will still win. 

Lieutenant Governor's Race: The race between incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. and former Treasury Secretary Kay Ivey will be much closer.  Both candidates have the albatross of the state's PACT program around their necks, but the stigma will be associated with Ivey more, as she was the Chairman of the program.  If turnout is high, Folsom will win.  If not, Ivey still has a chance. 

Now, a look at the national picture: 


Alabama's 2nd District: The future is not looking as favorable as it was four months ago for one-term Rep. Bobby Bright (D) as he faces a challenge from Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). The race maystill be close, but I think Roby has at least a 50 percent chance of winning.  Here's why:

1. With the exception of Lowndes and Bullock Counties, the Second District is largely Republican, and tends to vote two-thirds or more in favor of GOP candidates. 
2. Bright defeated his GOP challenger, Jay Love, with only 50.3 percent (about 2,000) of all votes in 2008, many of which came from the African-American fervor for President Obama.  That same passion has not materialized this election year.
3. The weather may also spoil Bright's chances of winning, as rain is predicted on the west side of his district for much of the day.  
4. All of these variables will likely affect turnout for both parties.  Since 1998, the district has averaged around 220,000 votes per general election.  The exception was 2008, when almost 290,000 district residents voted.  To see who will tomorrow night, watch the vote count.  If, when half of the ballot boxes in the district are accounted for, only 100,000 votes or less have been counted, Roby will likely win.  If the count is above 120,000, Bright is still in the game.   

US Senate: Real Clear Politics has the Republicans and Democrats with 45 and 48 seats, respectively, with 7 toss-ups.  Of these, at least 2 (CA, WV) will go Democratic, while another 3 (CO, IL, PA) will go GOP.  The question marks are Nevada (R+2.7) and Washington, where incumbent Patti Murray (D) has a lead of less than half a point over challenger Dino Rossi. Either way, the Democrats keep control of the Senate, by either 1 or 2 seats.

US House: In the House, 218 seats are needed for a majority.  Again, using data from Real Clear Politics, the GOP stands to gain anywhere from 45 to 88 seats in the House of Representatives, with a comfortable average of about 66-67 seats. At best, this will give Republicans 267 seats, and at worst, 224.  For the GOP, it is not a question of winning, but a question of the strength of their win.  Given the lack of Democratic enthusiasm in this electoral cycle, I predict a GOP pick-up of between 68-70 seats. 


As an aside, please vote tomorrow.  It is one of the few ways we can participate directly in the Great Experiment we call America. 

The Alabama Legislature: Is Major Change Coming?

With so many seats up for grabs in the Alabama legislature and so few unbiased polls making it to the public, it has been especially difficult to comment on who's winning and losing in the various House and Senate races. 

Thankfully, Doc's Political Parlor has posted summary data for both the House and Senate races, which they update from time to time.  Based on their numbers, here's what's happening in Alabama:

Senate: Six weeks ago, the GOP and Democrats were tied a 15 seats apiece, with 5 seats up for grabs.  A lot has changed since then, and most of it is not good news for the Democrats.  Three of the 5 toss-up seats have moved into GOP hands, as well as 2 seats formerly considered to be in Democratic hands.  Only 2 seats have moved away from the GOP: Kim Benefield's seat is now a toss-up, and Harri Anne Smith's Independent seat has moved from being a toss-up to Independent territory. 

In sum, the GOP now has a lead of 18-12, with 1 Independent (caucuses with the Democrats) and 4 toss-ups.  Remember, either party only has to have 18 seats to have a majority.  If this gain of at least 4 seats sticks, there will be a historic shift of power in the Legislature come January 2011. 

These numbers may be the tip of the iceberg.  Some insider information I've reviewed suggests the GOP is in striking distance of trouncing the Democrats, possibly picking up as many as 10 seats.  While this is a long shot, it would give the Republicans 24 of 35 seats, enough for a super-majority.

The House: There isn't much to report here.  At present, the Democrats have 50 seats under control, the GOP has 49, and 6 are anybody's guess.  This is about the same as six weeks ago. 

If the seats are broken down by "safe" (10+ point lead) and "likely" (5+ point lead), the Democrats have 35 safe, or 43 likely-or-better seats.  By comparison, Republicans have only 29 safe seats, or 40 likely-or-better seats, so they have a taller hill to climb to wrest control from the establishment.
 

Twelve Days and Counting...Where Are We?

Between the beginning of October and today, there is very little measurable difference in the number of seats held by either the Democrats or Republicans in the U.S. Senate:

                                                          10/1  10/20   Change
Safe GOP Seats (10+ points ahead)   17     17    
Safe Democrat Seats                            7       7
GOP Total (includes non-runners)      40      40

Democrat Total                                   47      47

Likely GOP Seats (5+ points)             23      20       -3
Likely Democrat Seats                         8        8
GOP Total                                          46      43
Democrat Total                                   48      48

Leaning GOP Seats (1+ points)          26     26
Leaning Democrat Seats                    10        9       -1
GOP Total                                           49     49
Democrat Total                                   50     49       -1

For the Republicans--and to a lesser extent, the Democrats--the seats each side has lost have not been picked up by the other party.  Rather, they are being swapped, with some seats disappearing into dead heats of less than 1 point between candidates. 

Most races are tightening across the country, but in most cases these changes are not enough to make any difference (yet) in the number of winners in both parties.  In fact, there are only three races where significant momentum is building.  Two of these are the New York races, where Sens. Gillibrand and Schumer are pulling away from their Republican challengers (-12 and -29, respectively). The third is Colorado, where Republican candidate Ken Buck is under attack for misspeaking during a debate and allegedly refusing to prosecute a rape case (at present, Buck is ahead by an average of 4 points).

Other races to watch for possible changes are:

• Alaska: Incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has reinserted herself into the campaign as a write-in candidate after having been defeated in the state's primary by Tea Party candidate Joe Miller.  As Real Clear Politics puts it, "the choice in Alaska will likely be what kind of Republican the state wants." At present, Miller is ahead by 1 point. 
• Pennsylvania: GOP candidate Joe Toomey's lead over Pat Sestak has largely evaporated in the past two weeks (+5 for Toomey).  
• Washington: As in PA,  GOP challenger Joe Rossi's lead over Democratic incumbent Patti Murray has vanished (-0.7 in favor of Murray). 
• West Virginia: Democratic candidate Joe Manchin has closed the gap with John Raese (+3 Raese).

As these and other races have narrowed to the point that their outcomes are in question, the goal of the Republicans to win a majority of Senate seats is looking more and more dubious.  So many factors will have to work in favor of the GOP that the odds of them getting 51 or more seats is now very unlikely.  Thus, I am sticking with my original projection: GOP 48, Democrats 52.