Senate Update for September 23

Since the beginning of September, for every point the Democrats have gained in the Senate polls, the Republicans have gained 2 points.  This, however, does not signal doom for the Democrats. 

If one steps back and looks at the total number of points changing sides from the beginning of the month until today, only about 115 points have changed hands, or about 3 points per race.  While most of these (77 points) are in favor of the GOP, they have had a mixed impact in the six states that will likely decide the extent of the Republicans’ gains in the Senate: CA, CO, IL, NV, WA, and WI. 

California: A bit of momentum may be building for incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, who has stretched her razor-thin lead from about 2 points to 4 points since September 1.  Nevertheless, only one poll (9/14-9/16) by the Democratically-aligned Public Policy Polling group has put Boxer at the all-important 50 percent mark once since February. 

Colorado: The GOP continues to hold this state (+4.5), but their improvements have been at a glacial pace.  Rasmussen’s next poll—which is due to be taken around next Tuesday—will be informative. 

Illinois: As with Colorado, Illinois is frozen in favor of the GOP by about 3 points. 

Nevada: This race is the archetype of a dead heat.  Republicans have closed the gap here, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid remains intractably favored by less than half a point. 

Washington: As with California, Democrats appear to be pulling away from the even match they were in at the beginning of the month.  Incumbent Senator Patty Murray is now about 3 points ahead of her challenger, Dino Rossi.   

Wisconsin: America’s Dairy Land is the only tipping point state where the GOP has achieved significant traction in the past three weeks, moving from 2 points behind to slightly more than 2 points ahead. 

Other Points of Interest

Party Gains: In the past two weeks, the biggest gains for the GOP have been in NC (+10), NY-1 (+9.5), AK (+7), NY-2 (+6), and GA (+5), while the best gains for the Democrats have been in AZ (-8), IN (-5), WA (-3.5), AR (-3.3), and DE (-3).  Of these, the most consequential are, in order, WA (dead heat to lean D), AK and NC (likely R to safe R), and both NY races. 

New York 1 and 2: While the NY races are still comfortably in Democratic hands, the conventional wisdom that incumbent Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer are invulnerable has been rattled, particularly with the latest Siena poll showing Gillibrand ahead of GOP challenger Joe DioGuardi by only one point.  Today's Real Clear Politics article on What the the Latest Polls Tell Us offers several explanations for this shift.  The next few days will tell whether this poll is an anomaly.  

Summary

Surprises certainly about for both sides over the next five-and-a-half weeks, but the law of averages suggests that they are just as likely to benefit either party.  Thus, I continue my prediction that the Democrats will carry the Senate, but in a substantially diminished capacity, 52-48. 

The Score in the Senate: Small Changes

Regardless of which race you are looking at, the Democrats continue to take a drubbing from the anti-incumbent mood of the American people.  Nevertheless, unless things change in a few key races, control of the Senate will remain in Democratic hands. 

• In the Senate, of the 37 seats in play, the GOP has a safe grip (10+ point advantage) on 13 of them, while the Democrats can say the same of only two (OR-17; VT-35).  This gives the Dems 42 seats, while the GOP has only 36.  
• If the margins are narrowed to leads of only five or more points, the GOP picks up seven more states (AK+8, GA+6.5, KY+6.8, MO+6.7, NC+9.5, OH+6.5, PA+5.7), while the Democrats gain Connecticut (-8.5) and West Virginia (-6).  This gives the Democrats a one-seat lead (44-43).
• If the margins are narrowed to the where-angels-fear-to-tread level of only one point or more advantage, the Republicans get Colorado (+4.3), Florida (+1.2), Illinois (+2), while the Democrats capture California (-2.2) and Nevada (-3).  While this creates a tie (46-46), these numbers are certain to see-saw in the next seven weeks.   
• But what of the "unknowns"?  Of the eight states where all candidates have yet to be chosen, history (and some yet-to-be added polling) suggests that New Hampshire and Delaware will go Republican (total: 48), while the Democrats will get Hawaii, Maryland, and New York Seats 1 and 2 (total: 50).  Which way Washington and Wisconsin will turn is anyone's guess.