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In 2008, 603 Alabamians killed themselves, a rate of 12.9 per 100,000 residents.  Most of these were white males (422; 25.9 per 100,000). 

Blogging Again...This Time, It's the Environment

Happy New Year!

I have begun blogging for Environmental Trends, a nationally renowned, free-market think tank website founded by the Pacific Research Institute.  At present, I have two blogs posted: one on nuclear power, and the other on improvements in environmental quality.  I look forward to your comments. 

Predictions for Tomorrow: A Historic Power Shift in AL, Less So Nationwide

Let's start with the big state races first:

Alabama House: Outside of its traditional strongholds, support for the Democratic party is collapsing. 

1. Since October 20, 4 of the 6 toss-up races have moved toward the GOP, with only one (HD-1) trending toward the Democrats.   Moreover, 6 races that were once though to have Democratic winners are now toss-ups. 
2. Two weeks ago, Democrats had 50 of the 105 seats in the House, with the GOP in control of 49.  Today, the GOP has 54, while the Democrats are down to 42.  Even if all 9 toss-ups go to the Democrats, the GOP will be in control of the House.  

Alabama Senate: Come tomorrow, the GOP stands to have at 17 seats, up from the present total of 14.  The Democrats will lose at least 7 seats, bringing their total down from 20 to 13.  Not counting the one Independent seat, 4 toss-ups remain.  At least one of these will go to the Republicans, giving them control of the both the House and Senate for the first time in almost seven generations. 

Governor's Race: Despite the lack of trust that Dr. Robert Bentley's has engendered through his covert acceptance of AEA funds, he will still win. 

Lieutenant Governor's Race: The race between incumbent Jim Folsom Jr. and former Treasury Secretary Kay Ivey will be much closer.  Both candidates have the albatross of the state's PACT program around their necks, but the stigma will be associated with Ivey more, as she was the Chairman of the program.  If turnout is high, Folsom will win.  If not, Ivey still has a chance. 

Now, a look at the national picture: 


Alabama's 2nd District: The future is not looking as favorable as it was four months ago for one-term Rep. Bobby Bright (D) as he faces a challenge from Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). The race maystill be close, but I think Roby has at least a 50 percent chance of winning.  Here's why:

1. With the exception of Lowndes and Bullock Counties, the Second District is largely Republican, and tends to vote two-thirds or more in favor of GOP candidates. 
2. Bright defeated his GOP challenger, Jay Love, with only 50.3 percent (about 2,000) of all votes in 2008, many of which came from the African-American fervor for President Obama.  That same passion has not materialized this election year.
3. The weather may also spoil Bright's chances of winning, as rain is predicted on the west side of his district for much of the day.  
4. All of these variables will likely affect turnout for both parties.  Since 1998, the district has averaged around 220,000 votes per general election.  The exception was 2008, when almost 290,000 district residents voted.  To see who will tomorrow night, watch the vote count.  If, when half of the ballot boxes in the district are accounted for, only 100,000 votes or less have been counted, Roby will likely win.  If the count is above 120,000, Bright is still in the game.   

US Senate: Real Clear Politics has the Republicans and Democrats with 45 and 48 seats, respectively, with 7 toss-ups.  Of these, at least 2 (CA, WV) will go Democratic, while another 3 (CO, IL, PA) will go GOP.  The question marks are Nevada (R+2.7) and Washington, where incumbent Patti Murray (D) has a lead of less than half a point over challenger Dino Rossi. Either way, the Democrats keep control of the Senate, by either 1 or 2 seats.

US House: In the House, 218 seats are needed for a majority.  Again, using data from Real Clear Politics, the GOP stands to gain anywhere from 45 to 88 seats in the House of Representatives, with a comfortable average of about 66-67 seats. At best, this will give Republicans 267 seats, and at worst, 224.  For the GOP, it is not a question of winning, but a question of the strength of their win.  Given the lack of Democratic enthusiasm in this electoral cycle, I predict a GOP pick-up of between 68-70 seats. 


As an aside, please vote tomorrow.  It is one of the few ways we can participate directly in the Great Experiment we call America. 

The Alabama Legislature: Is Major Change Coming?

With so many seats up for grabs in the Alabama legislature and so few unbiased polls making it to the public, it has been especially difficult to comment on who's winning and losing in the various House and Senate races. 

Thankfully, Doc's Political Parlor has posted summary data for both the House and Senate races, which they update from time to time.  Based on their numbers, here's what's happening in Alabama:

Senate: Six weeks ago, the GOP and Democrats were tied a 15 seats apiece, with 5 seats up for grabs.  A lot has changed since then, and most of it is not good news for the Democrats.  Three of the 5 toss-up seats have moved into GOP hands, as well as 2 seats formerly considered to be in Democratic hands.  Only 2 seats have moved away from the GOP: Kim Benefield's seat is now a toss-up, and Harri Anne Smith's Independent seat has moved from being a toss-up to Independent territory. 

In sum, the GOP now has a lead of 18-12, with 1 Independent (caucuses with the Democrats) and 4 toss-ups.  Remember, either party only has to have 18 seats to have a majority.  If this gain of at least 4 seats sticks, there will be a historic shift of power in the Legislature come January 2011. 

These numbers may be the tip of the iceberg.  Some insider information I've reviewed suggests the GOP is in striking distance of trouncing the Democrats, possibly picking up as many as 10 seats.  While this is a long shot, it would give the Republicans 24 of 35 seats, enough for a super-majority.

The House: There isn't much to report here.  At present, the Democrats have 50 seats under control, the GOP has 49, and 6 are anybody's guess.  This is about the same as six weeks ago. 

If the seats are broken down by "safe" (10+ point lead) and "likely" (5+ point lead), the Democrats have 35 safe, or 43 likely-or-better seats.  By comparison, Republicans have only 29 safe seats, or 40 likely-or-better seats, so they have a taller hill to climb to wrest control from the establishment.
 

Twelve Days and Counting...Where Are We?

Between the beginning of October and today, there is very little measurable difference in the number of seats held by either the Democrats or Republicans in the U.S. Senate:

                                                          10/1  10/20   Change
Safe GOP Seats (10+ points ahead)   17     17    
Safe Democrat Seats                            7       7
GOP Total (includes non-runners)      40      40

Democrat Total                                   47      47

Likely GOP Seats (5+ points)             23      20       -3
Likely Democrat Seats                         8        8
GOP Total                                          46      43
Democrat Total                                   48      48

Leaning GOP Seats (1+ points)          26     26
Leaning Democrat Seats                    10        9       -1
GOP Total                                           49     49
Democrat Total                                   50     49       -1

For the Republicans--and to a lesser extent, the Democrats--the seats each side has lost have not been picked up by the other party.  Rather, they are being swapped, with some seats disappearing into dead heats of less than 1 point between candidates. 

Most races are tightening across the country, but in most cases these changes are not enough to make any difference (yet) in the number of winners in both parties.  In fact, there are only three races where significant momentum is building.  Two of these are the New York races, where Sens. Gillibrand and Schumer are pulling away from their Republican challengers (-12 and -29, respectively). The third is Colorado, where Republican candidate Ken Buck is under attack for misspeaking during a debate and allegedly refusing to prosecute a rape case (at present, Buck is ahead by an average of 4 points).

Other races to watch for possible changes are:

• Alaska: Incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has reinserted herself into the campaign as a write-in candidate after having been defeated in the state's primary by Tea Party candidate Joe Miller.  As Real Clear Politics puts it, "the choice in Alaska will likely be what kind of Republican the state wants." At present, Miller is ahead by 1 point. 
• Pennsylvania: GOP candidate Joe Toomey's lead over Pat Sestak has largely evaporated in the past two weeks (+5 for Toomey).  
• Washington: As in PA,  GOP challenger Joe Rossi's lead over Democratic incumbent Patti Murray has vanished (-0.7 in favor of Murray). 
• West Virginia: Democratic candidate Joe Manchin has closed the gap with John Raese (+3 Raese).

As these and other races have narrowed to the point that their outcomes are in question, the goal of the Republicans to win a majority of Senate seats is looking more and more dubious.  So many factors will have to work in favor of the GOP that the odds of them getting 51 or more seats is now very unlikely.  Thus, I am sticking with my original projection: GOP 48, Democrats 52. 

Who's Hot, Who's Not: Examining Trends in U.S. Senate Races

One way to measure how well a candidate is doing to measure the momentum they are maintaining in their polling.  Rather than try and decipher the individual movements of polls (some battleground states and California have had more than a dozen polls taken since the beginning of June), below is a month-by-month summary of 15 states where significant movement has taken place in at least one month since June.  If a monthly poll shows a party initial with a "+", it denotes that the polls for that party's candidate significantly improved during that month; the opposite is true if a letter has a "-" next to it.  Months with only a dash indicate no significant movement for either party.

                            June     July    Aug   Sept   Current (R-D)   Result
AR                        -           -        R-      -        54-35                Still solid GOP lead
CA                        -           -         -       D+     43-47                Dems pulling ahead
CT                        R+       R+      -        -        45-51                No GOP momentum
DE                        R+       R+      -        -        40-54                Swap: GOP to Dem
FL                         R+       R+     R+     -         39-31               Stable GOP lead
MO                        R+       -        -        -         50-44               No GOP momentum
NV                         -          -        R+     R+      45-45               GOP and Dems tied
NH                         -          -        -        R+      49-37               Solidified GOP lead
NY - Gillibrand       -         R+     R+      -         39-50               Dems w/ solid lead
NY - Schumer        -         R+     -         -         35-57               Dems w/ solid lead
OH                        R+       R+     R+      -        51-38               GOP has solid lead
OR                        D+       -        R+      -        37-54               Dems have solid lead
SC                         R+       -        -         -        64-21               GOP has solid lead
WA                        -          -        -         R+     45-48               GOP closing gap
WI                         R+       R+     R+      -        47-42               Swap: Dem to GOP
                  
The overwhelming majority of the gains in momentum that have been made over the past four months have been on the side of the GOP.  Most of these movements, though, have not been game changers for either party. 

The Democrats have been able to begin to pull away in California and Oregon (despite an August GOP surge there). Likewise, Delaware has gone Democratic.  By comparison, only Wisconsin has changed from blue to red since June. More states may be trending one way or another but not enough surveys have been conducted in the past month to tell for sure. 

At present, six states have races where the parties are within five points of each other: CA (-4.9); IL (+1); KY (+3.4); NV (-0.2); WA (-2.5); and WV (+3.5).  If the election were held today, the results would be evenly split, giving the Democrats a 51-49 margin in the Senate. 

Senate Update for September 23

Since the beginning of September, for every point the Democrats have gained in the Senate polls, the Republicans have gained 2 points.  This, however, does not signal doom for the Democrats. 

If one steps back and looks at the total number of points changing sides from the beginning of the month until today, only about 115 points have changed hands, or about 3 points per race.  While most of these (77 points) are in favor of the GOP, they have had a mixed impact in the six states that will likely decide the extent of the Republicans’ gains in the Senate: CA, CO, IL, NV, WA, and WI. 

California: A bit of momentum may be building for incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, who has stretched her razor-thin lead from about 2 points to 4 points since September 1.  Nevertheless, only one poll (9/14-9/16) by the Democratically-aligned Public Policy Polling group has put Boxer at the all-important 50 percent mark once since February. 

Colorado: The GOP continues to hold this state (+4.5), but their improvements have been at a glacial pace.  Rasmussen’s next poll—which is due to be taken around next Tuesday—will be informative. 

Illinois: As with Colorado, Illinois is frozen in favor of the GOP by about 3 points. 

Nevada: This race is the archetype of a dead heat.  Republicans have closed the gap here, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid remains intractably favored by less than half a point. 

Washington: As with California, Democrats appear to be pulling away from the even match they were in at the beginning of the month.  Incumbent Senator Patty Murray is now about 3 points ahead of her challenger, Dino Rossi.   

Wisconsin: America’s Dairy Land is the only tipping point state where the GOP has achieved significant traction in the past three weeks, moving from 2 points behind to slightly more than 2 points ahead. 

Other Points of Interest

Party Gains: In the past two weeks, the biggest gains for the GOP have been in NC (+10), NY-1 (+9.5), AK (+7), NY-2 (+6), and GA (+5), while the best gains for the Democrats have been in AZ (-8), IN (-5), WA (-3.5), AR (-3.3), and DE (-3).  Of these, the most consequential are, in order, WA (dead heat to lean D), AK and NC (likely R to safe R), and both NY races. 

New York 1 and 2: While the NY races are still comfortably in Democratic hands, the conventional wisdom that incumbent Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer are invulnerable has been rattled, particularly with the latest Siena poll showing Gillibrand ahead of GOP challenger Joe DioGuardi by only one point.  Today's Real Clear Politics article on What the the Latest Polls Tell Us offers several explanations for this shift.  The next few days will tell whether this poll is an anomaly.  

Summary

Surprises certainly about for both sides over the next five-and-a-half weeks, but the law of averages suggests that they are just as likely to benefit either party.  Thus, I continue my prediction that the Democrats will carry the Senate, but in a substantially diminished capacity, 52-48.